The Times-Independent

After a lapse, the monsoons are back

It’s not 2021, but season is still ‘off to a good start’


Moab’s 2021 may be known as a year of plenty — not only for its tourism boom, but for its robust summer storms.

Stormy cumulonimbus clouds — identifiable by their impressive height — shroud the La Sal Mountains on Monday.
Photo by Sophia Fisher

“Last year was kind of a banner year for the monsoon season, which is extremely variable from year to year,” said meteorologist Jon Meyer of Utah State University’s Utah Climate Center. “It’s usually feast or famine depending on where things go. And last year was definitely feasting.”

Despite the fact that this summer’s monsoons aren’t quite the bounty of last year, Meyer said southeastern Utah is still “off to a good start.”

“It certainly isn’t record-breaking, but regionwide, the stations that we do have [in southeastern Utah] are all reporting normal to above-normal precipitation for the last 30 days,” Meyer said.

Indeed, according to the Western Regional Climate Center, most of Grand and San Juan counties received 75 to 125% of average precipitation from June 25 to July 24 this year, despite a brief break in the monsoons last week.

After that dry, sweltering spell, the monsoonal pattern of moisture surges returned this week. Precipitation and storms are again appearing in the Moab forecast, and meteorologists said they are hopeful the pattern will persist.

Lasting from June 15 through September 30, the Southwest’s monsoon season ushers in an annual summertime stream of moist air currents that often transform into much-needed showers and storms. Formally known as the North American monsoon, the weather pattern affects not only Utah but Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Southern California and Mexico.

Last year, Moab’s “banner” monsoon season drenched the area with over 5.5 inches of precipitation, according to data from the National Weather Service.

This year’s monsoons have proven healthy, if weaker than 2021. As of July 25, monsoon season has provided Moab with 0.52 inches of rain — lower than the 0.75 inches by the same date last year, but higher than 2020’s 0.29 inches.

With two months still left in the season, the weather pattern appears strong. According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, southeastern Utah is predicted to have above-average rainfall through about Aug. 7.

After that, the region has equal chances of receiving above- or below-average rainfall.

“Our outlook is optimistic, and the conditions so far have been really beneficial,” Meyer said. “It might not be the absolute best-case scenario right now, but it’s been pretty good for us.”

Erin Walter, a meteorologist with the Grand Junction forecast office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said she, too, anticipated more monsoonal storms at least in the near future.

Specifically, the persistence of the global la Nina weather pattern provides “a good signal for us to continue to get moisture,” Walter said.

Despite the region’s rosy chances for an average-to-wet summer, southeastern Utah isn’t entirely in the clear — or, rather, the cloudy.

Walter said Moab is especially challenging to forecast, as it borders various atmospheric currents.

“The hard thing with Colorado and eastern Utah is we often lie in the ‘eh, it could go either way’ line,” said Walter. “There’s not usually a really strong signature either way.”

Plus, the monsoon season as a whole is one of the most unpredictable weather patterns in the entire West, Meyer said.

“It’s incredibly challenging to predict the frequency and location of those surges of moisture that come up from the Gulf of California,” Meyer said. “It’s even a challenge for weather forecasters on the daily or two-daily forecast timescales to get those correct.”

“But with that said,” he added, “the way that the season has gone so far and sort of the general weather pattern that has been in place this summer … it’s leaning more toward an active monsoon season.”

Though monsoons alone are not enough to reverse southeastern Utah’s ongoing drought, Meyer, who also helps lead the Utah Drought Task Force, said the summer storms have relaxed some immediate fears.

“[Moab] was definitely on our radar coming out of this spring season for drought degradation,” he said. “We’ve shifted our focus away from the area, for the most part thanks to the monsoonal rainfall.”

“At this point, it’s remaining status quo and we’re crossing our fingers that things will continue to stay this wet,” Meyer added.